




Not long ago investors had few qualms about paying 30 times earnings for almost any company; the dot-com frenzy was in full swing, and prevailing sentiment suggested that the new technology boom would allow companies to enjoy endless years of strong earnings growth.
Time has passed, but once again we’re finding that investors
don’t care about fundamentals. This time
around, though, no one is willing to pay anything for strong companies at
discounted prices because all are certain that this recession will prove to be
like no other.
It’s well known that we all have a natural tendency to
emphasize and exaggerate the primacy of our current circumstances; the present
almost always seems more powerful and more significant than anything that
occurred in the past.
Yet investors who lived through the 1974 or 1982 recessions
will tell you things were as scary then as they are now, even without the added
wrinkle of complex structured finance products.
And we also had similar problems in 1991. The S&L crisis
loomed large over the financial services landscape, pumped up by the commercial
real estate disaster and the weakness in home prices. Add in the huge banking
losses from Latin America loans, mass layoffs
on Wall Street, unemployment in the manufacturing sector as well as an
overleveraged consumer and government and suddenly it’s back to the future.
Looking ahead, I maintain the view that the global economy won’t
lapse into depression. But as I’ve noted here before, the consequences of the
current turmoil--particularly the loss of confidence in the system’s purported
invincibility and superiority--will be long-lasting.
Although the US
economy will remain the biggest in the world for a long time, its credibility
will suffer immensely. Along with its debtor status, that will pose a challenge
going forward as the US
addresses other nations on economic matters. History has shown that a debtor
has no luck when lecturing its creditor.
That said, economic activity around the world continues to
be ugly in the final quarter of 2008. That portends a substantial economic
slowdown in 2009.
But economic numbers, like the markets, are stretched to the
downside, and it shouldn’t be too shocking to receive a positive surprise in
economic activity early in 2009. This may not be the economic bottom, but it
should put a floor under the extremely distressed global economy.
China,
in particular, will continue to worry investors. New fiscal stimulus efforts
will take time to materialize, and the country’s economy is struggling to
adjust with the upcoming slowdown in global demand.
But the first quarter should be the worst for China, as a
combination of domestic stimulus and the gradual pickup of the global economy
after mid-year should start showing up in the numbers.
Looking at the markets, with the competition for the most
negative sensationalist headline still on investors will stay away from growth
for some time, allowing prudent bargain hunters to position themselves for the
next cycle.
But the markets are supposed to be predictive, looking out
six months or more. They’re supposed to turn around before economies do. It
remains to be seen if market participants think that most of the bad news is
factored into stock prices, thus allowing for a strong finish for the year.
However, even if the rally gets going in a big way, a
potential retest next year is more than likely. I recommend monitoring the CRB Commodity
Index for signs of a turnaround. Commodities have been destroyed during the
selloff and should turn around first once demand starts picking up again.
Much of the demand destruction can be attributed to the fact
that inventories had risen dramatically; consumers were trying to buy in
advance because prices were rising very fast. Consequently, when prices started
falling dramatically and global economic weakness started settling in, a slow-paced
de-stocking period commenced.
Going forward, investors should ensure that their portfolios
are well-hedged, with a core group of financially strong, non-cyclical
holdings.
The Silk Road Investor Portfolio has a clear preference for financials and telecommunication companies. Financials should be the sole benefactors of falling interest rates while offering great exposure to Asia’s long-term domestic demand investment theme. Telecom offers exposure to strong cash flows, sustainable dividends and growth potential.
With his experience in international market analysis and venture financing, Yiannis G. Mostrous is more than just a world traveler; he’s also an expert on identifying investment opportunities in emerging and overlooked markets—the places most of us only see on television.
As an analyst with Artemel International, Yiannis worked with developmental institutions to promote business development in the Mediterranean, while as an associate in the venture capital Finance & Investment Associates was involved in analyzing start up companies’ business plans evaluating their potential while bringing together worthy candidates and angel investor groups.
He also worked as a consultant for brokers in Intersec Securities, a brokerage firm in Athens, Greece, where he did primary research and solicited business from high net worth clients. More recently, Yiannis coauthored a book on investment opportunities in Asia, The Silk Road to Riches: How You Can Profit by Investing in Asia’s Newfound Prosperity.
Since joining KCI, Yiannis has dedicated himself to helping individual investors bolster their returns and give their portfolios an international flavor. In his financial advisory The Silk Road Investor, Yiannis explains the most profitable facets of emerging global economies such as China and India, while Vital Resource Investor, a subscription-based service, seeks opportunities for equity investors in
the global natural resource markets.
Yiannis has an MBA from Marymount University with a major in Finance and a BBA from Radford University focusing on investments in natural resource markets around the globe. He is also a veteran of the Hellenic Navy in the Landing Ships Command Office.
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