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Roger Conrad

Roger S. Conrad is editor of Utility Forecaster, the nation’s leading advisory on essential services stocks, bonds and preferred stocks. His proprietary safety rating system evaluates the prospects of every significant electric, natural gas, telecommunications and water company, including utility-based mutual funds and foreign utilities. Roger’s penchant for detailed research and his studied insights into utilities markets have garnered him a wide audience of subscribers—not to mention a bevy of industry awards for his perceptive reporting, commentary and investment advice.

He brings the same enthusiasm and intelligence to Roger Conrad’s Canadian Edge, an Internet-based publication devoted to uncovering lucrative investment opportunities in Canadian royalty trusts. Roger’s exhaustive coverage of how recent changes to Canada’s tax laws will affect these companies has earned him a reputation as one of the leading authorities on Canadian trusts. Subscribers and the national media often contact him for information on the latest economic developments and investment opportunities north of the border.

Roger is also associate editor of Personal Finance and co-editor of Vital Resource Investor, a subscription-based service that seeks opportunities for equity investors in the natural resource markets across the world.

He holds a bachelor’s degree from Emory University and a master’s degree in international management from the American Graduate School of International Management (Thunderbird). In addition, he is the author of Power Hungry: Strategic Investing in Telecommunications, Utilities and Other Essential Services and coauthor of The Agile Investor and Market Timing for the Nineties with Stephen Leeb. He is also an avid outdoorsman and baseball fan.

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 Articles by this Author

For all his cunning, Mr. Harper proved himself doubly cold, though perhaps a little dumb, with the official fall economic and fiscal update delivered by Finance Minister Jim Flaherty on behalf of the minority government last Thursday. It was widely hinted that Mr. Flaherty would put off any stimulus plans until the February 2009 federal budget period, and there was no upside surprise there

There are some things we do know for certain about this market. First, stocks are cheaper on virtually any valuation measurement than they’ve been in six years. Commodity producers are back to prices last seen in the late 1990s, an historic nadir for natural resources of all stripes. Second, virtually every company that posted solid second quarter earnings wound up with strong third quarter numbers.

Providing government support to aggregate demand is of obvious critical importance right now, but efforts to do so by spending money building schools, railways, hospitals, low-income housing, bridges and water mains has the added benefit of redressing decades of neglect by governments with other spending priorities.

100-Year Trends

To be sure, utility stocks have taken on water since early September, like everything else. The sector has posted strongly positive fourth quarter returns 33 times since 1969. But getting there this time will require a nearly 20 percent surge by Dec. 31, and time is growing short for such a move. On the other hand, at least through the third quarter earnings season, the sector is still weathering the worst US economic crisis in 80 years.

The G-20, GM and the Global Economy

The global financial crisis has made balance sheet strength fashionable again when it comes to evaluating companies. It’s what will allow those that have it to survive. Countries that entered this extraordinary period with sound finances are similarly positioned to weather it better and emerge from it stronger relative to not-so-prudent nations.

The more data we see, the more obvious it is that the economy hit a brick wall in October. Today’s blockbuster number was retail sales, which plunged by the largest amount on record, 2.8 percent versus 2.65 percent in November 2001. But it’s just the latest in a steady string of lousy numbers, ranging from surging unemployment to weak manufacturing.

China announced a USD586 billion stimulus package Nov. 9, an amount equal to nearly a fifth of the country’s GDP. Global markets reacted with initial glee before turning negative in the face of discomforting economic news.

Your View: Money Show Q&As

Greetings from InterShow’s 2008 Washington, DC Money Show. This year’s event comes at a pivotal time in history for investors, with the global economy sliding and a presidential election only days behind us, as well as the globe in a full-scale effort to combat credit pressures that have literally frozen lending for several weeks.

October: Ugh

Resource-intensive Canadian indexes posted their worst month in 10 years in October, the Standard & Poor’s/TSX Composite Index shedding 17 percent, the biggest monthly decline since August 1998.

For the first time since third quarter 2001, the US economy is shrinking. Third quarter numbers for GDP showed a 0.3 percent decline from the prior quarter. And given the recent declines in consumer confidence and consumer spending employment, it’s likely we’ll see further contraction in the fourth quarter and possibly into 2009.

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